MPSERS Unfunded Pension Liabilities Grow to $45.3 Billion, or $53.9 Billion?

Looks like things are getting worse, while we’re told they’re getting better. The just released Michigan Public School Employees’ Retirement System (MPSERS) annual financial statement should dispel any notion of a School Aid Surplus. Remember, most of the unfunded liability (+$45.3 BILLION) has to be paid for by annual transfers from the yearly operating budgets of local schools and colleges that participate in MPSERS. This year that transfer will represent an added cost of 27.4% on top of all employee salaries.  Salaries and benefits are 80% to 90% of a typical school budget so this is significant impact to operating budgets.

The MPSERS unfunded liability is significantly worse than the reported number. Consider, the fund uses an accounting rule (trick, gimmick, game) to “smooth” the data over a five year period. Without smoothing the unfunded liability approaches $53.9 BILLION (current year assets total $34.7 billion, down from $35.9 billion in 2010).

It gets worse. The fund makes some aggressive assumptions about its expected future earnings. The fund assumes it will earn 7% to 8% annually depending on the obligations. Actual performance over the last 5 years has been 2.3% annually, nearly 3.5 times below plan (and 5.1% annually over 10 years, nearly 1.6 times below plan). On a current basis, aggregate assets FELL between 2010 and 2011 by $1.2 BILLION (the second time this has happened in the last three years) making the true unfunded liability hole deeper. 

The fund notes that it had a good year realizing returns of 6.6%  That return sounds good but there are two problems: 1) 6.6% is far below the 8% required in the plan assumptions, and 2) Digging into the details much of the that performance was realized in segments of the portfolio classified as ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS and REAL ESTATE which saw returns of 29.9% and 16.9% respectively. 

The ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS and REAL ESATE investment pool include limited partnerships and investments in the private equity market. Funds should have these types of assets in their portfolio, that’s not the issue. The problem is measuring returns; who values these investments? Are the assumptions used realistic? When were the values established? By nature these investments are private, so there is no traditional clearing market, there is no public venue to check prices. As such there is significant latitude in how any individual asset is valued; caution should be exercised when these asset class significantly boost total returns as they have in this case. 

This problem has been brewing for years despite my repeated attempts to sound the alarm. It’s been allowed to fester and the price of the problem has exploded. It’s time to fix it. 

MEA 2011 Compensation Comparisons

Today marked the release of the annual LM2 report for the MEA. This report (required by the Department of Labor) details the compensation for all officers and employees of the Michigan Education Association; you can find the simple analysis of the report here, and the complete report here. As has been the case for years, compensation at the parent organization (the MEA is the state level organizing unit of the NEA) is consistently stronger than for the rank and file teachers. What sets this report apart from years past is the first time ever median reduction in median pay. The average increase continues to outpace the CPI but this is influenced by timing issues (some individuals may have come onto the payroll mid year, etc.) and other adjustments. Perhaps the MEA leadership recognized the difficult economy school districts have been dealing with for years, as they say "better late than never." What has not changed is that life is very good at the top of the MEA ladder, in fact all top ten MEA officers earn more than Governor Snyder. So where are the calls to limit MEA top compensation to no more than what the Governor makes? MEA Salaries 10-11 Here is the document which summarizes the top ten earners at the MEA. This data comes directly from the Department of Labors LM2 filings. MEA Top Ten Salaries 2011

MPSERS - School Pension In Trouble (Part 1 of a Series)

Economic and demographic reality is colliding with the pension and healthcare promises made decades ago in Michigan’s Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS). As I’ve discussed, and now Governor Snyder has pointed out, the reality of a $36.9 billion unfunded pension liability (another way of saying the pension is short $36.9 billion) creates a crushing burden on all Michigan taxpayers; this includes the very people that participate in the pension fund. The chart above reveals a simple truth as to why the pension fund is struggling. It shows both the declining active (employed) membership in MPSERS, and the growing number of retired members. The two lines are going to converge and cross if trends continue. The chart below projects a continued fall off in Michigan's student population through 2020, it is a trend that started years ago. Source data here and here.



That measure (total students) is highly correlated to public school employment. Together the charts show how employment has responded to the decline in total students, and how that trend is likely to continue. The implication is simple: the future holds fewer students, fewer public school employees, accelerating payouts from pension funds, and higher percentages of school operating budgets directed to support the pension fund. In fact, the projected contribution rate for next year is expected to increase from 20.66% to nearly 28% That means for each dollar an employee earns, districts will have to divert an additional 28 cents on top of that dollar to support the pension fund. That additional contribution gets larger in future years (source data here). The state does not increase school funding to match this mandate -- it is the ultimate in unfunded mandates. The pension payments are made out of operating funds available for the classroom, for teacher salaries, for equipment and supplies, and for program support.

MPSERS has attempted to address the issue, but the current measures represent bandaids. Some initiatives designed to save the system have been met with legal challenges which, if successful, will have the ironic effect of further crippling the pension system.

Conversations about honest assessments and major reforms are happening, the key to crafting lasting solutions is clarity regarding the nature and scope of the problems -- topics to be explored in future posts.

How Greek’s Debt Crisis Can Inform Michigan’s Pension Debate

Michigan’s teacher pension fund (MPSERS) is underfunded by nearly $61 billion. This massive debt is split between an unfunded pension liability of $35 billion (supported by Manhattan Institute study) and an unfunded health care promise, known as OPEB, of $26 billion (from MPSERS financial statement). Michigan's total budget is $43 billion (seehere, slide 19). MPSERS unfunded liability equals 142% of Michigan's total budget.

The Greek debt crisis is fueled by debt levels that will exceed 120% of Greek’s gross domestic product. While not an apples to apples comparison the message is clear, spending more than you make is not sustainable.

The debate regarding proposals to mandate new MPSERS entitlements for health care is irresponsible. MPSERS funding requirements are crippling school budgets with a tax on districts approaching nearly 20% on every salary dollar. The proposed amendment to enshrine health care in SB 1227 will add to that burden for generations. Greece, along with the rest of Europe, is paying for its history of financial malfeasance. Unless legislators wake up, Michigan faces a similar fate. Making good on the pension promise will be challenging enough, adding to that burden with a guaranteed health care mandate will make it impossible.

SB 1227, Winners and Losers

Currently the Michigan House is contemplating language which will increase the retirement multiplier from 1.5 to 1.7. This will, without offsetting cuts, add to a pension fund which has seen it’s funded status fall from the high 80% mark to an abysmal 51% (after pulling back the curtain of “smoothing” and the application of realistic investment assumptions). A $60 billion dollar unfunded pension liability is bad, enacting legislation to increase the size of this unfunded burden by $4.3 billion is very bad.

How would this change have an impact on the interested constituents? Here are just a few possibilities.

The Winners:

• All teachers that choose to retire this year (assuming they were already considering retirement).
• The MEA which will claim this a “victory” for its members.
• Legislators that will claim a “cost savings” for schools.
• Short term school budgets that will see lower cost teachers replace higher cost teachers.

The Losers:

• All teachers that do not chose the retirement option this year.
• The MEA because rapidly escalating legacy costs will consume an even higher percentage of operating budgets.
• New teachers which will be the first to lose jobs as accelerated pension contributions force future teacher layoffs.
• School operating budgets which will face pension costs approaching 30% per salary dollar.
• Legislators that will have to unscramble the mess created by adding more burdens to an already overburdened pension fund.
• Michigan students which will eventually pay for short sighted budget decisions.
• Taxpayers (which includes working teachers) that will be forced to pay for these unfunded promises.

The House should reject an increase on the pension multiplier from 1.5 to 1.7. While the impact may be a short term “savings” the long term costs will add to the fiscal pain of Michigan’s schools, teachers, tax payers, and students. We cannot afford the pension plan we have, and an unfunded increase to the multiplier will magnify the problem. Call your Michigan House Representative and urge them to NOT INCREASE THE PENSION MULTIPLIER in SB 1227. Click here to get your Representatives phone number.

Senate Bill 1227 (SB 1227) Is A Fix Worth Implementing

The reforms proposed by SB 1227 are sensible and fair. The changes envisioned by SB 1227 address fundamental structural problems which, if left unchanged, threaten the viability of the Michigan Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS). The Senate Fiscal Agency shows that SB 1227 will save over $3.5 billion over the first 10 years. Longer term savings will continue to grow and will help to erode the $35 billion to $60 billion of unfunded liabilities currently embedded in the system. The MEA is fighting this reform with the statement SB 1277 will not solve Michigan's budget crisis. The MEA misses the point; SB 1277 is just one of MANY changes that MUST be made to ensure we address current and future budgetary problems. Encourage our state representatives to support SB 1277, it will be good for MPSERS, and good for our state. Without sensible reforms like SB 1227, MPSERS will drag Michigan’s economy down a fiscal black hole taking tax payers, school districts, and teachers along for the ride.

Michigan's Pension -- Who Will Pay The Bill?

The following is from my article in The Center for Michigan's Newsletter -- this version contains the supporting links to pension documents:

The Michigan Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS) is on a doomsday course to fiscal ruin, while continuing to assert its own financial health as “good.” Using aggressive accounting and market assumptions, the appointed board of MPSERS is growing the funding deficit by billions each year beyond the funds reported deficit. This hidden and unreported underfunding amounts to as much as $12 billion and is in addition to the reported loss of over $17.9 billion in assets for the last two years. Warren Buffett has said, “pension accounting encourages cheating,” and MPSERS engages in aggressive pension accounting. To clarify, MPSERS manages two programs for all public school and university employees and retirees; a pension fund and an “Other Post Employment Benefits” (OPEB) fund which pays for health, dental, and vision benefits for retirees. Both funds are currently underfunded with significant ongoing liabilities. In forecasting the future funding requirements and current shortfalls for both funds, MPSERS uses three significant accounting and assumption manipulations which lead to significant distortions of the total underfunding. The first issue is called “smoothing,” a reporting technique designed to minimize the impact of short term adjustments or market fluctuations. Smoothing works for short periods, but it results in understating pension funding needs during a downturn. With the use of smoothing MPSERS currently reports it has unfunded liabilities of only $34.9 billion. While a $35 billion deficit is very severe, the actual picture is much worse. By removing smoothing the unfunded liability balloons to between $45 to $47 billion or more. This unfunded liability represents an obligation of nearly $30,000 per student for every child in Michigan’s K-12 system as of today. For context, the funding required to meet MPSERS obligations (pension and OPEB) is over $4.0 billion annually, with a recent annual growth rate of over 5.8% However, contributions to the MPSERS system totaled only $2.1 billion representing an increase of 0.6% over the prior year. So while payouts are growing at nearly 6%, contributions have been growing at less than 1%. This creates an accelerating financial death spiral where assets are continuously withdrawn faster than they are being replaced. This highlights the second issue -- the ability for MPSERS to continually defer the necessary contributory requirements. MPSERS’ 2009 fiscal year financial statement shows that total contributions for OPEB should have been nearly $1.8 billion higher than they were. So while schools transferred $1.5 billion out of operating budgets and shifted it to MPSERS, the contribution should have been $3.3 billion. Viewed on a per student basis the actual contribution was over $1,015/student. Yet MPSERS footnotes that it should have been over $2,184/student, or nearly 26% of the net foundation allowance of $8,324 (after the $165 proration). Left unchecked, the full cost of OPEB benefits will break school operating budgets. The third issue is MPSERS use of aggressive assumptions for annual investment returns. Over the past 5 years, MPSERS investment return has been 4.2% The 2009 FY MPSERS projection model used an investment rate of return of 8.0%, nearly double the return of the past 5 years. Reducing the projected investment performance to 6% (closer to the 6.5% Warren Buffett employes for his pensions), the unfunded liability increases an additional $13 billion to nearly $60 billion. By using unduly optimistic projections, MPSERS disguises the size of the reported unfunded liability. This leads to one final point. The actuarial firm charged with developing and validating the assumptions used in MPSERS’ model states that the data is audited annually. However, the Auditor states in its annual letter to the fund that, “The introductory, investment, actuarial [emphasis added], and statistical sections have not been subjected to the auditing procedures applied in the audit of the basic financial statement and, accordingly, we express no opinion on them.” In essence, no one is checking the underlying assumptions thus allowing MPSERS’ board to determine its own financial health while smoothing massive losses, underfunding contributions, and employing aggressive assumptions for forecasted returns. Stripped of manipulations, it’s clear that MPSERS has mortgaged the future of Michigan’s taxpayers and children with a debt we cannot afford.