2012 MPSERS Financial Statement Released

Thirty days late is better than never; the MPSERS Annual Report has been posted. You can view the report here. Upon first review there is good news and bad news. I'll provide a detailed analysis once I've worked through all 111 pages. A few notable items jumped to the front including:

• Funded ratio (using the "smoothing" accounting trick) has fallen to 64.7% (pg.36)
• Total unfunded liability of pension fund is $22.4 BILLION and $25.9 BILLION for Other Post-employment Benefits (health care). Total Unfunded position: $48.3 BILLION
• Investment assumptions continue to remain insupportably high at 8% (pg. 37)
• Total portfolio returns lagged market indexes but reported a solid 13.5% return (pg. 7)
• Five year total return on portfolio is annualized at 1.6% (pg. 7)

The one thing that accounting gimmicks (smoothing) and inflated assumptions cannot hide is the demographic wave which continues to threaten the school aid fund... soon there will be more retirees drawing from the pension system than there will be employees paying into the system. The following chart on page 102 of the report is clear:

There is little to no likelihood of reversing this trend. All demographic studies support the fact that Michigan is getting older. There will be fewer school age children added to the system and there will be a declining need for additional teachers. With only 27,108 more active members than retired members, it's likely that the lines will cross in the next two to three years. The recent changes enacted to bolster the system might delay the need for more dramatic actions, but like all political acts it only kicks the can further down the road. 

MPSERS - School Pension In Trouble (Part 1 of a Series)

Economic and demographic reality is colliding with the pension and healthcare promises made decades ago in Michigan’s Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS). As I’ve discussed, and now Governor Snyder has pointed out, the reality of a $36.9 billion unfunded pension liability (another way of saying the pension is short $36.9 billion) creates a crushing burden on all Michigan taxpayers; this includes the very people that participate in the pension fund. The chart above reveals a simple truth as to why the pension fund is struggling. It shows both the declining active (employed) membership in MPSERS, and the growing number of retired members. The two lines are going to converge and cross if trends continue. The chart below projects a continued fall off in Michigan's student population through 2020, it is a trend that started years ago. Source data here and here.



That measure (total students) is highly correlated to public school employment. Together the charts show how employment has responded to the decline in total students, and how that trend is likely to continue. The implication is simple: the future holds fewer students, fewer public school employees, accelerating payouts from pension funds, and higher percentages of school operating budgets directed to support the pension fund. In fact, the projected contribution rate for next year is expected to increase from 20.66% to nearly 28% That means for each dollar an employee earns, districts will have to divert an additional 28 cents on top of that dollar to support the pension fund. That additional contribution gets larger in future years (source data here). The state does not increase school funding to match this mandate -- it is the ultimate in unfunded mandates. The pension payments are made out of operating funds available for the classroom, for teacher salaries, for equipment and supplies, and for program support.

MPSERS has attempted to address the issue, but the current measures represent bandaids. Some initiatives designed to save the system have been met with legal challenges which, if successful, will have the ironic effect of further crippling the pension system.

Conversations about honest assessments and major reforms are happening, the key to crafting lasting solutions is clarity regarding the nature and scope of the problems -- topics to be explored in future posts.

How Greek’s Debt Crisis Can Inform Michigan’s Pension Debate

Michigan’s teacher pension fund (MPSERS) is underfunded by nearly $61 billion. This massive debt is split between an unfunded pension liability of $35 billion (supported by Manhattan Institute study) and an unfunded health care promise, known as OPEB, of $26 billion (from MPSERS financial statement). Michigan's total budget is $43 billion (seehere, slide 19). MPSERS unfunded liability equals 142% of Michigan's total budget.

The Greek debt crisis is fueled by debt levels that will exceed 120% of Greek’s gross domestic product. While not an apples to apples comparison the message is clear, spending more than you make is not sustainable.

The debate regarding proposals to mandate new MPSERS entitlements for health care is irresponsible. MPSERS funding requirements are crippling school budgets with a tax on districts approaching nearly 20% on every salary dollar. The proposed amendment to enshrine health care in SB 1227 will add to that burden for generations. Greece, along with the rest of Europe, is paying for its history of financial malfeasance. Unless legislators wake up, Michigan faces a similar fate. Making good on the pension promise will be challenging enough, adding to that burden with a guaranteed health care mandate will make it impossible.

SB 1227, Winners and Losers

Currently the Michigan House is contemplating language which will increase the retirement multiplier from 1.5 to 1.7. This will, without offsetting cuts, add to a pension fund which has seen it’s funded status fall from the high 80% mark to an abysmal 51% (after pulling back the curtain of “smoothing” and the application of realistic investment assumptions). A $60 billion dollar unfunded pension liability is bad, enacting legislation to increase the size of this unfunded burden by $4.3 billion is very bad.

How would this change have an impact on the interested constituents? Here are just a few possibilities.

The Winners:

• All teachers that choose to retire this year (assuming they were already considering retirement).
• The MEA which will claim this a “victory” for its members.
• Legislators that will claim a “cost savings” for schools.
• Short term school budgets that will see lower cost teachers replace higher cost teachers.

The Losers:

• All teachers that do not chose the retirement option this year.
• The MEA because rapidly escalating legacy costs will consume an even higher percentage of operating budgets.
• New teachers which will be the first to lose jobs as accelerated pension contributions force future teacher layoffs.
• School operating budgets which will face pension costs approaching 30% per salary dollar.
• Legislators that will have to unscramble the mess created by adding more burdens to an already overburdened pension fund.
• Michigan students which will eventually pay for short sighted budget decisions.
• Taxpayers (which includes working teachers) that will be forced to pay for these unfunded promises.

The House should reject an increase on the pension multiplier from 1.5 to 1.7. While the impact may be a short term “savings” the long term costs will add to the fiscal pain of Michigan’s schools, teachers, tax payers, and students. We cannot afford the pension plan we have, and an unfunded increase to the multiplier will magnify the problem. Call your Michigan House Representative and urge them to NOT INCREASE THE PENSION MULTIPLIER in SB 1227. Click here to get your Representatives phone number.

Senate Bill 1227 (SB 1227) Is A Fix Worth Implementing

The reforms proposed by SB 1227 are sensible and fair. The changes envisioned by SB 1227 address fundamental structural problems which, if left unchanged, threaten the viability of the Michigan Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS). The Senate Fiscal Agency shows that SB 1227 will save over $3.5 billion over the first 10 years. Longer term savings will continue to grow and will help to erode the $35 billion to $60 billion of unfunded liabilities currently embedded in the system. The MEA is fighting this reform with the statement SB 1277 will not solve Michigan's budget crisis. The MEA misses the point; SB 1277 is just one of MANY changes that MUST be made to ensure we address current and future budgetary problems. Encourage our state representatives to support SB 1277, it will be good for MPSERS, and good for our state. Without sensible reforms like SB 1227, MPSERS will drag Michigan’s economy down a fiscal black hole taking tax payers, school districts, and teachers along for the ride.

Michigan's Pension -- Who Will Pay The Bill?

The following is from my article in The Center for Michigan's Newsletter -- this version contains the supporting links to pension documents:

The Michigan Public School Employees Retirement System (MPSERS) is on a doomsday course to fiscal ruin, while continuing to assert its own financial health as “good.” Using aggressive accounting and market assumptions, the appointed board of MPSERS is growing the funding deficit by billions each year beyond the funds reported deficit. This hidden and unreported underfunding amounts to as much as $12 billion and is in addition to the reported loss of over $17.9 billion in assets for the last two years. Warren Buffett has said, “pension accounting encourages cheating,” and MPSERS engages in aggressive pension accounting. To clarify, MPSERS manages two programs for all public school and university employees and retirees; a pension fund and an “Other Post Employment Benefits” (OPEB) fund which pays for health, dental, and vision benefits for retirees. Both funds are currently underfunded with significant ongoing liabilities. In forecasting the future funding requirements and current shortfalls for both funds, MPSERS uses three significant accounting and assumption manipulations which lead to significant distortions of the total underfunding. The first issue is called “smoothing,” a reporting technique designed to minimize the impact of short term adjustments or market fluctuations. Smoothing works for short periods, but it results in understating pension funding needs during a downturn. With the use of smoothing MPSERS currently reports it has unfunded liabilities of only $34.9 billion. While a $35 billion deficit is very severe, the actual picture is much worse. By removing smoothing the unfunded liability balloons to between $45 to $47 billion or more. This unfunded liability represents an obligation of nearly $30,000 per student for every child in Michigan’s K-12 system as of today. For context, the funding required to meet MPSERS obligations (pension and OPEB) is over $4.0 billion annually, with a recent annual growth rate of over 5.8% However, contributions to the MPSERS system totaled only $2.1 billion representing an increase of 0.6% over the prior year. So while payouts are growing at nearly 6%, contributions have been growing at less than 1%. This creates an accelerating financial death spiral where assets are continuously withdrawn faster than they are being replaced. This highlights the second issue -- the ability for MPSERS to continually defer the necessary contributory requirements. MPSERS’ 2009 fiscal year financial statement shows that total contributions for OPEB should have been nearly $1.8 billion higher than they were. So while schools transferred $1.5 billion out of operating budgets and shifted it to MPSERS, the contribution should have been $3.3 billion. Viewed on a per student basis the actual contribution was over $1,015/student. Yet MPSERS footnotes that it should have been over $2,184/student, or nearly 26% of the net foundation allowance of $8,324 (after the $165 proration). Left unchecked, the full cost of OPEB benefits will break school operating budgets. The third issue is MPSERS use of aggressive assumptions for annual investment returns. Over the past 5 years, MPSERS investment return has been 4.2% The 2009 FY MPSERS projection model used an investment rate of return of 8.0%, nearly double the return of the past 5 years. Reducing the projected investment performance to 6% (closer to the 6.5% Warren Buffett employes for his pensions), the unfunded liability increases an additional $13 billion to nearly $60 billion. By using unduly optimistic projections, MPSERS disguises the size of the reported unfunded liability. This leads to one final point. The actuarial firm charged with developing and validating the assumptions used in MPSERS’ model states that the data is audited annually. However, the Auditor states in its annual letter to the fund that, “The introductory, investment, actuarial [emphasis added], and statistical sections have not been subjected to the auditing procedures applied in the audit of the basic financial statement and, accordingly, we express no opinion on them.” In essence, no one is checking the underlying assumptions thus allowing MPSERS’ board to determine its own financial health while smoothing massive losses, underfunding contributions, and employing aggressive assumptions for forecasted returns. Stripped of manipulations, it’s clear that MPSERS has mortgaged the future of Michigan’s taxpayers and children with a debt we cannot afford.

$17.9 Billion Loss Motivates a Call for Change

The recent proposal by Governor Granholm which includes changes to MPSERS, the Michigan Public School Employees' Retirement Plan is motivated by one simple fact, the plan is in trouble.

The current MPSERS 2009 Audit shows that the pension fund has lost over $17.9 billion over the last three years. What's worse is the funds audit hides just how bad the situation is by employing a "smoothing" technique which mitigates the impact of losses. Utilizing the current asset base against the total unfunded liabilities the funded ratio drops from 83% to 63% Other dynamics are working against the system. 1) The rate of retirees is growing, while the rate of new employees is declining, 2) the assumptions underlying the "health" of the system are barely hitting 1/2 of the projected rate (4.2% return over 5 years versus projected rates of 8%), 3) the required rate of contribution needed to amortize the unfunded liability of obligations is billions lower than the actual rate, 4) the pool of money dedicated to funding the pension obligations (the school aid fund) has shown dramatic decreases which will negatively impact total employment in the system. Read the full audit here if you'd like to download directly. MPSERS 2009 Audit

Michigan Pension Fund Loss: $17.9 Billion over Three Years

The current MPSERS 2009 Audit shows that the pension fund has lost over $17.9 billion over the last three years. What's worse is the funds audit hides just how bad the situation is by employing a "smoothing" technique which mitigates the impact of losses. Utilizing the current asset base against the total unfunded liabilities the funded ratio drops from 83% to 63% Other dynamics are working against the system. 1) The rate of retirees is growing, while the rate of new employees is declining, 2) the assumptions underlying the "health" of the system are barely hitting 1/2 of the projected rate (4.2% return over 5 years versus projected rates of 8%), 3) the required rate of contribution needed to amortize the unfunded liability of obligations is billions lower than the actual rate, 4) the pool of money dedicated to funding the pension obligations (the school aid fund) has shown dramatic decreases which will negatively impact total employment in the system. Read the full audit here if you'd like to download directly.

MPSERS 2009 Audit

Michigan Teachers Pension Fund Lost $9.2 Billion in 2008

Why this is not headline news is a mystery. Regardless, MPSERS (Michigan Public School Employees' Retirement System) details a $9.2 BILLION loss in asset value on page 19 of the report (image below), it is in the second line of the third paragraph.
MPSERS - Michigan Teachers' Pension Fund Lost $9.2 Billion in 2008

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The contribution rate schools will be forced to pay will be expanding SIGNIFICANTLY to pay for this loss, and to pay for the actuarial deficit the program has accumulated. That deficit, using the old asset value, exceeds $30 BILLION. Add the current loss to the amount and we approach a $40 billion deficit. Even amortized over 20 years that adds nearly $2 Billion in year in extra payments - or and added cost (and additional funding requirement) of $1,234/student. Together with the current per student pension contribution of $981 and you have a cost of $2,215 per student or 30% of the $7,316/student foundation allowance. That's simply not sustainable.

The deceptive "funded ratio" is seen on page 18 of the document:

MPSERS - Teacher's Pension Audit Hiding the Real Facts

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The page which details the use of old asset values. The report simply ignores the current loss of $9.2 billion. How is this different that what Bernard Madoff did to his clients?
MPSERS - Michigan Teachers Pension Fund Deceptive on its Financial Performance

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Pension Deficit Now $31 Billion

The deficit in the State Teachers Pension Fund continues to grow, from an estimated $24 Billion to approximately $31 Billion today. That number represents over $18,780 PER STUDENT and growing. The number keeps getting worse and yet demands keep going up; at some point the damn will break and there'll be nobody home to clean up the mess. Please contact your state representatives in Lansing and demand action to clean up the pension mess they have created.

The page reproduced below is page 46 from the state audit (which you can find here).

The Revaluation Letter

The letter which details the one time adjustment in the pension fund. Note, this is a one time adjustment and does not address the structural problems which will cause the state required school contribution to jump from 16.72% this year (2007/2008) to over 20% next year. For the Birmingham School District this will cost nearly $2.15 million or $266 per student - which state funding will not cover or support.

The $14 BILLION Unfunded Health BenefitLiability

Similar to the pure pension benefit, the teachers pension fund has disclosed (in a small footnote) the fact that it's promised health benefit is underfunded by $14 BILLION. Again, at what point does this become a problem. The audit indicates the fund is in good health, but that's qualified in a very narrow sense. Interestingly, this page is in a letter of transmittal that is not searched using Adobe's find function - it's hidden on page 8 of the full report (find it here for 2006) unless you know where to look.

Audit Pages - $10 BILLION Benefit Deficit

Here is a copy of the page from the current state audit of the pension system. Notice how the problem is GETTING WORSE even as schools have been required to contribute more to the system. My simple question is this: How can the audit report that the pension system is in good health? Maybe because it assumes an UNLIMITED ability to tax the local school districts to continue funding the growing deficit. The column to note is the fourth, it shows how the unfunded liability (shown as a positive number) is growing, now approaching $10 BILLION. This is from page 43 of the full report (find it here for 2006).